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As the middle of the dry season approaches, electricity generation from Nepal’s hydropower projects has been declining toward its minimum level. With no rainfall and the snowmelt season yet to begin, reduced river flow has pushed electricity production toward its lowest limit.

During winter, especially in run-of-river projects, power generation capacity drops significantly. In particular, electricity production from run-of-river projects led by the private sector has been decreasing. Projections by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology indicate that rainfall is expected to be lower this year, suggesting that river flows will decline further. As a result, additional pressure is likely to be placed on hydropower generation.

According to Kulman Ghising, Executive Director of the Nepal Electricity Authority, the situation is challenging this time due to low winter rainfall and reduced river flow. “Rainfall has been low, and snowfall has also been limited, so electricity generation may become even more challenging in the months of Falgun and Chaitra,” he said. “If production declines, we will manage electricity supply by increasing imports.”

Although 400 megawatts of additional electricity generation capacity has been added to the Nepal Electricity Authority’s supply system this year, it appears insufficient to significantly support the dry season demand. On Magh 25 this year, NEA projects generated 5,325 megawatt-hours of electricity, compared to 5,435 megawatt-hours on the same day last year. Despite the addition of 400 megawatts of capacity since last winter, electricity received from the private sector was about 4,000 megawatt-hours higher last Sunday compared to the same day last year.

According to NEA data, the peak demand recorded at 6:30 PM last Sunday was 2,051 megawatts, compared to 1,958 megawatts on the same day last year. Due to increased peak demand and minimal supply disruptions, average imports rose to 419 megawatts last Sunday, compared to only 167 megawatts on the same day last year. However, in terms of total energy, 10,052 megawatt-hours were imported on the same day this year, compared to 11,758 megawatt-hours last year. NEA spokesperson Rajan Dhakal stated that the reduction in total energy imports is a positive sign. “Megawatt levels may appear higher for certain specific time slots (15 minutes), but overall energy imports have remained lower so far, which is positive,” he said.

He also expressed that there is no major cause for concern, as electricity imported from India has been relatively cheaper this year. “Currently, electricity is being imported at an average rate of INR 3.50 per unit, so there is no need to be overly worried about imports,” he said.