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As tensions escalate in the Middle East and concerns rise over global oil supply, the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) says it has received assurances that regular fuel supply from India will not be disrupted.

An NOC spokesperson said consumers “do not need to panic.”

On Tuesday, the benchmark Asian crude oil price Brent crude rose by 3.2% to 80 US dollars per barrel, while natural gas prices increased by 30%.

“It may take some time for things to normalize. Depending on how the situation develops, international prices may rise somewhat. However, our prices will remain stable until March 15,” said NOC spokesperson Manoj Kumar Thakur.

“After that, prices will be determined according to the corporation’s automatic pricing system.”

NOC imports all petroleum products for Nepal from the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC).

Fuel prices in Nepal are determined based on the price list sent by IOC on the 1st and 16th of every month.

“So far, there has been no disruption in imports. We are importing even more than market demand,” Thakur said.

“We are bringing fuel through the pipeline 24 hours a day.”

However, former Commerce Secretary Purushottam Ojha warned that prices have already started rising rapidly, and if the situation does not improve, supply disruptions could occur.

“India has already started assessing the situation and its possible impacts. China directly buys a lot of oil from Iran, but Nepal does not have reliable infrastructure to import oil directly from there,” he said.

How much storage capacity does Nepal have?

According to NOC spokesperson Thakur, Nepal’s current storage capacity can meet demand for about 10 days even if supply completely stops.

He said India does not buy oil from Iran. Instead, it mainly imports crude oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other countries, and maintains reserves sufficient for about two and a half to three months before refining.

Daily consumption in Nepal is approximately:

- Petrol: 2–2.5 million liters

- Diesel: 4–4.5 million liters

Demand for cooking gas (LPG) is about 45,000 metric tons per month.

Around 70–75% of petroleum products enter Nepal through pipelines, including diesel, petrol, and kerosene.

Among imported fuels:

- Diesel accounts for more than half

- Followed by petrol and LPG

- Kerosene has a very small share

Currently, tanker deliveries are mainly used in:

- Jhapa (east)

- Bhairahawa

- Nepalgunj

- Dhangadhi

Ojha noted that although discussions about building infrastructure to store petroleum for three months have been ongoing for years, the project has stalled due to land acquisition disputes.

“Electric vehicles and electric kitchen appliances have increased in Nepal, but the country cannot operate without petroleum products,” he said.

If petroleum becomes scarce, it would simultaneously affect inflation, transportation, and cooking.

Nepal Oil Corporation’s warning

NOC has urged people to buy and use fuel only as needed and avoid excessive hoarding.

“Petroleum products are highly flammable, and since summer is beginning, storing them at home increases the risk of accidents,” Thakur said.

He added that sufficient LPG gas is being imported and distributed through dealers, although some brands of cylinders are currently unavailable in the market.

According to him, this shortage is mainly due to psychological fear among consumers, and he urged the public not to create panic about fuel availability.

Why are concerns about petroleum increasing?

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has raised fears that oil supply from major producing regions could be disrupted, pushing energy prices higher worldwide.

Analysts say Asia and Europe would be the most affected if the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route in the Persian Gulf, were closed or if attacks on oil and gas infrastructure continued.

NOC spokesperson Thakur said the government would make necessary decisions if the situation deteriorates significantly.

“The government and relevant stakeholders will develop strategies based on how the situation evolves,” he said.

“For now, imports are continuing according to demand, and India has assured that supply will not be disrupted.”

Reports indicate that Iran has warned against using the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and gas transit.

Oil and gas prices have been rising since the United States and Israel began attacks on Iran over the weekend.

On Monday, QatarEnergy, one of the world’s largest exporters, temporarily halted production at one of its facilities after a military attack, further pushing up natural gas prices.

Former secretary Ojha said Nepal has very limited options in such a situation and warned that difficult days could come if tensions do not ease.

“Nepal’s consumption is not a large share for India. But India imports most of its oil from abroad. If it faces a crisis, it may not be able to continue supplying Nepal as it does now,” he said.