Er.energyNP@Gmail.com

Generation is projected to grow 8% annually through 2030.

Geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation are exposing renewable energy supply chains to mounting disruption, even as the underlying case for clean energy investment strengthens.

Renewable generation is projected to grow 8% annually through 2030, with investment appetite remaining strong, acording to a WTW report.

However, the report warns that risk profiles across the sector have shifted fundamentally, driven by converging pressures including disrupted critical mineral supply chains.

This is further compounded by manufacturing concentration - with China remaining the dominant producer of solar PV modules and wind components - rerouted shipping around conflict zones raising transit times and freight costs, and regulatory uncertainty tied to shifting tariffs and incentive structures.

These pressures translate into specific exposures such as project delays from supply bottlenecks, cost overruns from inflated material, manufacturing and transport costs, counterparty risk from supplier insolvency, political risk including expropriation and sanctions, and business interruption during construction or operations.

WTW frames diversified clean energy capacity as a hedge against the price spikes and supply shocks associated with fossil fuel dependency, arguing that geopolitical pressure is reinforcing rather than undermining the long-term case for the energy transition.

To manage the shifted risk landscape, the report recommends mapping supply chain exposure using geospatial risk tools and predictive modelling.

Firms can also stress-test insurance programmes through scenario modelling to capture best- and worst-case loss scenarios and feed those results into actuarial risk optimisation studies to balance retention and transfer.