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Green hydrogen, geothermal, and space-based solar power must prove viability to scale.

Emerging renewable technologies are moving closer to commercial deployment, but scaling them will depend on proving economic viability, resilience, and effective risk management, according to Willis' Renewable Energy Market Review.

The report cited green hydrogen, next-generation geothermal, and space-based solar power (SBSP) as emerging clean energy technologies.

“As competition intensifies, only the most cost-efficient, reliable, and scalable solutions will succeed,” it said.

For green hydrogen, the report said the focus has shifted from proving the technology to identifying applications where projects can operate safely, manage supply chain exposure, and achieve competitive costs.

It identified the strongest growth potential in ammonia and methanol production, oil refining, steel manufacturing, long-duration grid balancing, and aviation.

High production costs, policy and regulatory uncertainty, limited infrastructure, supply chain volatility, and safety risks continue to constrain deployment, Willis said adding that a limited operating history also creates financing and insurance challenges.

"Success will depend on reducing costs, prioritising high-value applications, and establishing secure offtake agreements that make projects bankable," the report said.

The report also said advances in enhanced geothermal systems and closed-loop technologies have expanded geothermal's potential beyond regions with natural geothermal reservoirs.

It said drilling techniques adapted from the oil and gas sector, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, together with the reuse of existing wells, could reduce development costs, as drilling accounts for more than half of geothermal project expenditure.

Geothermal projects continue to face risks, including uncertainty over heat resources, subsurface unpredictability, well-control incidents, environmental hazards, induced seismicity, and regulatory intervention.

"Geothermal's growth will depend not just on technology and policy, but on how effectively developers de-risk the subsurface through smarter engineering and innovative insurance solutions," the report said.

For SBSP, the report said the technology has progressed towards commercial deployment, citing an agreement between Meta and start-up Overview Energy that provides Meta with early access to up to one gigawatt of space-based solar capacity.

The demonstration is targeted for 2028, with commercial delivery planned by 2030.

The report said SBSP benefits from continuous sunlight, which could reduce reliance on energy storage, with demand likely to come initially from energy-intensive sectors such as data centres seeking low-carbon, reliable power.

However, Willis noted that projects must address regulatory requirements, wireless power transmission risks, launch and operational hazards, cyber security, liability, and space debris before deployment can scale.

"The path from innovation to infrastructure is rarely linear," the report said. "It demands clarity, coordination, and confidence across the entire value chain."

Photo by Bernd Dittrich via Unsplash